The number of Green Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) has grown in recent years, thanks to research on the effects of climate change and to environmentalist movements such as Fridays For Future. Finding a pattern in Green voting behaviour would allow us to test the current theories in the literature and predict new trends. Many macroeconomic indicators such as GDP per capita, location and the support for traditional left-wing parties are known to be strong predictors of the vote share for Green political groups. In this paper, we will show you how, using a popular classification method, it is possible to predict which countries will successfully elect at least one Green MEP.
Green Voting ExplainedDownload pdf